Auto Sector Moves Past September Hurdle For Final Year-End Push
Malaysia’s total industry volume (TIV) for September 2025 declined 20 per cent month-on-month (MoM), largely due to shorter working days and scheduled maintenance shutdowns.
Kenanga Investment Bank’s noted that the dip was expected, as the month included four public holidays and Perodua’s one-week plant closure for maintenance and production recalibration ahead of year-end sales. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, TIV remained flat, attributed to the postponement of new model launches by Perodua and several Japanese marques to the fourth quarter.
For the first nine months of 2025 (9MCY25), TIV accounted for 72 per cent of Kenanga’s full-year forecast of 805,000 units (a 2 per cent YoY contraction), which the research house said was in line with expectations. In comparison, 9MCY24 contributed 73 per cent of that year’s total.
Kenanga’s projection remains slightly above the Malaysian Automotive Association’s (MAA) forecast of 780,000 units (-4.4% YoY), supported by resilient demand in the affordable segment, broader fuel subsidy coverage for all Malaysians, a steady stream of new vehicle launches, and forward buying activity ahead of upcoming tax changes.
“We expect October 2025 TIV to rebound strongly given the return to normal working days, completion of plant maintenance, and aggressive year-end promotions,” Kenanga said, adding that the ending of imported EV CBU incentives by year-end will further spur sales as importers rush to clear inventories through discount campaigns.
National Brands Hold Firm, Perodua Maintains Lead
National marques maintained a 68 per cent share of total sales, unchanged from a year earlier, with Perodua commanding 48 per cent of the overall TIV. The strong showing was underpinned by sustained demand in the mass-market segment and new product offerings.
Among non-national brands, Mazda’s market share slipped to 1 per cent from 2 per cent a year ago, pressured by slower model launches and rising competition from Chinese automakers.
In September, Chery climbed to third place among non-national brands with 7 per cent market share, surpassing BYD, which fell to fourth with 6 per cent. Kenanga attributed the shift to increased competition in the electric vehicle (EV) space, with Chery’s internal combustion engine (ICE) models gaining traction, while BYD’s EV-focused portfolio faced dilution as new entrants — including iCaur (launched in August) and Proton’s e.Mas 7 — expanded the segment.
EV Momentum Building
The report highlighted Malaysia’s growing battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption, supported by ongoing sales and service tax (SST) exemptions and EV incentives extended until 2025 for CBUs and 2027 for CKDs.
BEV registrations have surged from 274 units in 2021 to 3,400 in 2022, 13,301 in 2023, and 21,789 in 2024, representing around 3 per cent of total TIV, according to the Ministry of Transport.
Kenanga expects further policy support as the government targets EVs and hybrid vehicles to make up 20 per cent of total vehicle sales by 2030 and 38 per cent by 2040.
In tandem, efforts to expand charging infrastructure are gaining pace. As of September 2025, 3,611 out of 4,299 proposed charging stations have been completed, with plans to more than double the total to 10,000 by end-2025.
Outlook:
Kenanga remains optimistic on the sector’s recovery trajectory heading into the final quarter, forecasting stronger sales driven by year-end campaigns, upcoming model launches, and incentive-driven EV demand.
“Perodua is expected to benefit the most given its higher localisation rate and plans to begin local assembly of EVs by year-end,” the research house added.
